Confidence - where next for the global economy?

How are low business and consumer confidence going to affect the global economy.


According to data from the OECD as recently as January 2020 both business and consumer confidence where hovering around the 100 mark. Consumer confidence was slightly higher at 100.5 than business confidence which was reading at 99.5, where readings of above 100 indicate a positive outlook for growth and below 100 indicate a negative outlook.


On looking at the data more closely the business confidence in 2018, when the FTSE hit its all time high of 7,787, was only reading at just above 101. This was the highest reading since the lows of the financial crisis in 2009.


Interestingly, as you can see from the graph below, the lowest reading for business confidence globally during the Corona virus was not as low as during the 2009 financial crash and has shown a slight upturn in the latest available data.



Consumer confidence globally shows a similar pattern with a sharp drop from the beginning of 2020 as the impact of the Coronavirus started to be felt and a small upturn in the recent data. The UK data, however, makes grim reading as it continues its downward trend in both graphs:



With this in mind, and echoing Keynes’ “animal spirits” definition of the fluctuating confidence and pessimism of investors and business, I am curious to know how my contacts, colleagues, ex-colleagues and partners are feeling about the outlook for their business or organisation as we continue to live with the seismic effects and impact of Coronavirus.


There is a plethora of information, misinformation, insight, opinion and scaremongering in the press and this media frenzy can make it difficult to know what people really think about the economy and their business.


To address this issue, I have drafted a short, 10 question, survey to ascertain the views of people at a more micro level of the economy.


If you are interested in this issue, then please complete the anonymous survey below. I will be presenting the findings of the survey in a webinar in September.


Please note that we do not collect any data on who has completed the survey and you are not required to submit any of your personal details, the survey is completely anonymous:


https://www.surveymonkey.co.uk/r/NRR9LM7


So to find have your say on your view of the economy and your business, and to find out what other people in similar positions to you think, complete the survey and come along to the webinar, date to be confirmed.

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